Last Thursday the results of a new survey was published from the University of Liverpool’s Irish Institute. It includes the first poll in regards to Northern Ireland Assembly voting intentions from a company other than LucidTalk, who have been conducting NI Assembly polls once every three months or so. The timing of this particular poll is very interesting as it comes almost exactly six months before the latest date for the next Assembly election: Thursday 5th May 2022.
The results of this poll for each party, compared to their result in the last Assembly election in March 2017, are:
- Sinn Féin: 23.5% (-4.4% from AE17)
- DUP: 20.6% (-7.5% from AE17)
- Alliance: 17.3% (+8.2% from AE17)
- UUP: 13.0% (+0.1% from AE17)
- SDLP: 11.4% (-0.5% from AE17)
- TUV: 5.6% (+3.0% from AE17)
- Green: 3.9% (+1.6% from AE17)
- Other: 4.7% (-0.5% from AE17)
Here is how this poll compares to the other polls and elections over the course of this Assembly term:
It is worth looking in detail at the implications of this poll for each party, as well as which candidates have been selected for each party as Alliance, UUP, SDLP and TUV have each announced a number of candidates, while we are still waiting on official announcements from Sinn Féin and the DUP.
Sinn Féin
Confirmed candidates: None
MLAs not seeking re-election:
- Alex Maskey (Belfast West)
- Emma Rogan (South Down)
This is now the fifth poll in the last year with Sinn Féin as the largest party, making them the presumptive favourites to emerge as the largest party in the next Assembly, and Michelle O’Neill the favourite to become the next First Minister. Having said that, 23.5% would be their worst result since 2003, in which they were also on 23.5%, down from 2007 (26.2%), 2011 (26.3%), 2016 (24.0%) and 2017 (27.9%).
This 4.4% decrease in the Sinn Féin vote would prevent the party from gaining any potential target seats, such as East Antrim or second seats in East Derry and Upper Bann. They would have a number of seats at risk, due to how narrowly many of their seats were won in 2017 especially in constituencies where they have three or four MLAs out of five. Most vulnerable is their third seat in Fermanagh and South Tyrone and their second seat in North Belfast, followed by their third seats in Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone, as well as their second seat in Foyle. They could face close contests to defend their only seats in South Belfast, South Antrim and particularly North Antrim as well, especially if their candidates begin below quota and struggle to gain enough transfers from other parties, which is often the case with Sinn Féin candidates, but this is more unlikely.
This point around transfers is very important for STV elections. In 2017 many Sinn Féin candidates started very close to the quota in first preferences, but gained very few external transfers from other parties. The best example of this was North Belfast, where Gerry Kelly and Carál Ní Chuilín started in first and second place with 0.91 quotas and 0.86 quotas respectively; despite this they only narrowly won the final two seats as they only gained 320 and 235 transferred votes respectively, while the runner-up (Nuala McAllister from Alliance) narrowed an initial gap of 2,442 votes to just 556 votes. While this is probably Sinn Féin’s greatest challenge, the North Belfast example also indicates one of Sinn Féin’s greatest advantages, which is that they are very good at vote management. In West Belfast, the four Sinn Féin candidates were ahead of every other candidate in first preference votes, which is how they held their four seats with just over 3.7 quotas. Even if Sinn Féin does lose quite a lot of votes, if they can balance well they might be able to minimise losses by staying ahead of rivals whose transfers they can hope to benefit from.
Sinn Féin has not announced any candidates officially, but there have been reports that certain MLAs have been deselected, e.g. Emma Rogan in South Down in favour of local councillor Cathy Mason, or former MLAs not being reselected, e.g. Barry McElduff not selected in West Tyrone. In addition, eleven of the twenty-seven Sinn Féin MLAs have been co-opted during the Assembly term to replace party colleagues, only three of whom are former councillors, the majority of them will be running for election for the first time next year. While as mentioned earlier Sinn Féin is generally very good at vote management, there is a possibility that some of their longer-serving MLAs who have recently retired, such as Raymond McCartney, Sean Lynch and Fra McCann, might have established a personal vote which the newer candidates might not hold. Although it could also give the party new opportunities to win over new voters. Overall it is difficult to tell how this election will go for Sinn Féin, they are likely to lose at least a few seats but they will hope they can defend enough to overtake the DUP and become the largest party in the Assembly for the first time.
DUP
Confirmed candidates: None
MLAs not seeking re-election: None
This poll is yet another disappointment from the DUP. This is the fifth poll to place the party behind Sinn Féin, and down just over one quarter from their 2017 result. It would be their worst result since 1998, less than 2003 (25.7%), 2007 (30.1%), 2011 (30.0%), 2016 (29.2%) and 2017 (28.1%), which indicates how substantial the party’s decline has been. Having said that, 20.6% is not nearly as bad as some of the more recent LucidTalk polls from the DUP, including one poll which had the party on just 13%, behind the UUP and TUV, so in a way this poll could be a relief for the DUP. They are only 2.9% behind Sinn Féin in this poll, a much smaller gap than several of the aforementioned LucidTalk polls for example.
With a 7.5% decrease in their vote, quite a few DUP seats would be at risk. The most vulnerable seat by far is their third in Strangford, which was very narrowly won in 2017 and therefore makes Strangford the only constituency with three DUP MLAs. Also likely to be difficult for the DUP to hold include their seat in Foyle and their second seats in North Down, Upper Bann and East Londonderry. If the TUV in particular can gain enough support to start taking DUP seats, that means the second DUP seats in every other constituency could be at risk, and on a very bad day their only seats in majority nationalist constituencies like Newry and Armagh and South Down. However, if the TUV fails to gain a seat in most constituencies the DUP will hope to regain the vast majority of their transfers in order to hold the seats they have. Any potential gains seem almost impossible with such a substantial decrease in the DUP.
This poll strikes me as more likely to be replicated in May then some of the previous LucidTalk polls, mainly because while the TUV will undoubtedly gain some ground from the DUP, they probably don’t have the candidates or resources to push over 10%, whereas the DUP has the advantage of well-known candidates who have been active in their constituencies for decades in some cases. The DUP has also improved their vote management in recent years, and generally did quite well in this respect in 2017. In the past the DUP would have relied on their leading candidate to bring in the first preference votes and for those to transfer to less well known colleagues, e.g. in the 1982 Assembly election in East Belfast, Peter Robinson had 15,319 votes, his colleagues Sammy Wilson and Denny Vitty had 397 and 235 votes respectively (interestingly Vitty was elected but not Wilson, since Robinson’s transfers went 77% to Vitty and only 9% to Wilson). We are unlikely to see such poor vote management from the DUP in 2022. Although vote management doesn’t really matter if the DUP vote collapses, still while 20.6% is obviously not a great result for them it also isn’t the collapse other polls appeared to indicate. One advantage of regaining a lead over the UUP and TUV is that the DUP can frame this election as a straightforward battle to become First Minister, Jeffrey Donaldson or Michelle O’Neill, this so called ‘Project Fear’ strategy has been very successful until now, but will it be in May?
As with Sinn Féin, it is interesting that the DUP has not announced anything in respect of candidates. The DUP will have to decide how many candidates to run in a number of constituencies, e.g. to they try to go for three where they had three until 2017 or do they only run two and consolidate due to the risk of dropping to just one seat? The most interesting constituency will be Lagan Valley, since new DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has indicated he plans to run there in May, which makes sense as he is the current MP, but the two current MLAs, First Minister Paul Givan and former DUP leader Edwin Poots, have also said they will run there. While the DUP only narrowly lost their third seat by 433.22 votes in 2017, that was on 28.1% across Northern Ireland rather than 20.6%, making a third very unlikely. This means if Donaldson is to gain a seat, either Givan or Poots could lose out, with Poots probably more likely since he was behind Givan in the 2016 and 2017 elections. Also interesting is South Down, since Jim Wells is currently suspended from the party’s Assembly team. It is unclear whether he will run again, as an independent or with the DUP; while in North Down Alex Easton is running as an independent having left the DUP earlier this year, he topped the poll in the last four Assembly elections but it is difficult to tell how much of that was a personal vote. The DUP will probably hope the majority of their MLAs choose to contest the next election rather than retire, as none of them have indicated they won’t run again and none of them stood aside to allow Donaldson to return to the Assembly early, at the moment only five of the twenty-six DUP MLAs were co-opted rather than elected. Overall the DUP appear most likely to finish second at the moment, but there are two other possibilities, either that the TUV fails to win any seats and their transfers help the DUP just about remain ahead of Sinn Féin in terms of seats, or that the TUV and Alliance both do better than expected, and Alliance’s greater transfer friendliness also brings them ahead of the DUP, leading to the DUP finishing third. But at this stage second seems most probable.
Alliance
Confirmed candidates:
- Nuala McAllister (Belfast North)
- Paula Bradshaw and Kate Nicholl (Belfast South)
- Stewart Dickson and Danny Donnelly (East Antrim)
- Chris McCaw (East Londonderry)
- Matthew Beaumont (Fermanagh and South Tyrone)
- Rachael Ferguson (Foyle)
- Sorcha Eastwood and David Honeyford (Lagan Valley)
- Connie Egan and Andrew Muir (North Down)
- John Blair (South Antrim)
- Patrick Brown (South Down)
- Eóin Tennyson (Upper Bann)
- Stephen Donnelly (West Tyrone)
MLAs not seeking re-election:
- Chris Lyttle (Belfast East)
This is another very good poll for Alliance, which has them polling slightly ahead of their best ever Westminster result in 2019 (16.8%) and just below their best ever election, the European election in 2019 (18.5%). Most importantly however, 17.3% is nearly double Alliance’s result in the 2017 Assembly election, which was 9.1%, at the time their best result since 1987. This indicates how substantial the growth in the Alliance vote has been, and if replicated in May it would be the best Assembly election result in the party’s history.
All of Alliance’s eight seats won in 2017 are safe, meaning they will definitely have more seats than the current seven they have now. The most likely gains based on 2017 are North Belfast and South Down, Nuala McAllister and Patrick Brown came much closer than expected respectively and both have since significantly improved their vote at local council level and did very well in the 2019 general election. Other constituencies where Alliance has a chance of winning an Assembly seat for the first time ever include Upper Bann, North Antrim, East Derry and West Tyrone, but such is the increase in their vote that Alliance has at least an outside chance in every constituency. Alliance will also be looking to gain second seats in South Belfast, East Antrim, North Down, Strangford and Lagan Valley, all are possible on the basis of the various 2019 results, but these could be more difficult as they rely on the two candidates balancing their vote effectively, in some of these constituencies Alliance will have two candidates for the first time in decades (Strangford) or ever (Lagan Valley). Alliance will be encouraged by their strong vote management in most DEAs in which they had two candidates in the 2019 local election.
One advantage Alliance will have in this election is that they are probably the most transfer friendly party in this upcoming election, as a cross-community party they are in a good position to gain transfers from moderate voters within both unionism and nationalism as well as from other non-aligned parties like the Greens. This has always been key to Alliance’s success in STV elections, e.g. in the 1982 Assembly election in North Belfast Paul Maguire won the final seat by overcoming an initial gap of 1,502 votes with Sinn Féin’s Joe Austin, through transfers from the Workers Party and the various unionist candidates; while in West Belfast Will Glendinning won the final seat despite beginning 1,661 votes behind the DUP’s William Dickson, also through Workers Party transfers as well as from the two nationalist parties. More recently in 2003 Alliance was able to defend its six Assembly seats despite a large drop in their first preference votes through their transfer friendliness, e.g. David Ford beginning 902 votes behind Sinn Féin’s Martin Meehan in South Antrim but winning the final seat by 180.56 votes through unionist and SDLP transfers. But in each of those elections Alliance was fifth in first preference votes, often very far behind the other four main parties as in 2003, what could make 2022 unique is Alliance already having a solid lead over the UUP and SDLP on first preferences as in this poll, which would allow them to benefit from transfers to a much greater extent, particularly now that they can afford to run two candidates in certain constituencies without the risk of losing their only seat.
Another key aspect of this election for Alliance is how many of their candidates are councillors first elected in 2019 who by May 2022 will have had three years to build on their initial success. Of the sixteen Alliance candidates announced so far, only four are sitting MLAs, two are councillors first elected in 2014, nine are councillors first elected in 2019 and only one is not a councillor. This indicates the extent of Alliance’s growth outside greater Belfast since 2019, where they can run sitting councillors like Eóin Tennyson, Chris McCaw and Stephen Donnelly in constituencies far from Belfast with a good Alliance of success for the first time. We could see the Alliance progress in North Belfast and South Down from 2014-17 repeated in several other constituencies alongside the wider increase in the Alliance vote. Overall this poll is very encouraging for Alliance as they head into May 2022 hoping for a significant increase in their number of MLAs to represent the growing number of non-aligned and ‘other’ voters in Northern Ireland who do not identify with unionism or nationalism.
UUP
Confirmed candidates:
- Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston (Belfast North)
- Stephen McCarthy (Belfast South)
- Linsey Gibson (Belfast West)
- Darryl Wilson (East Londonderry)
- Rosemary Barton and Tom Elliott (Fermanagh and South Tyrone)
- Ryan McCready (Foyle)
- Robbie Butler and Laura Turner (Lagan Valley)
- Meta Graham (Mid Ulster)
- David Taylor (Newry and Armagh)
- Alan Chambers and Naomi McBurney (North Down)
- Steve Aiken and Paul Michael (South Antrim)
- Jill Macauley (South Down)
- Ian Marshall (West Tyrone)
MLAs not seeking re-election: None
This poll has the UUP in almost exactly the same position as they were in 2017, meaning if this was the result we would see very little change in their support. While this indicates the previously substantial decline in UUP support has ended, it will likely come as a disappointment to the party after the last LucidTalk had them in second place ahead of their main unionist rivals, compared to fourth place here behind Sinn Féin, DUP and Alliance. 13.0% would be up slightly from the UUP’s Assembly election results in 2016 (12.6%) and 2017 (12.9%), but down slightly from 2007 (14.9%) and 2011 (13.2%).
Most of the UUP seats are likely to be safe, with their second seat in East Antrim the most vulnerable. Their best opportunities for gains is in more rural nationalist majority constituencies such as Newry and Armagh and Mid Ulster, where the UUP will hope to either take the DUP seat following their decline, or the third Sinn Féin seat through DUP and Alliance transfers, the latter is difficult since in the 2019 general election Alliance overtook the UUP in these constituencies for the first time, which if this poll was the result would likely happen again. The UUP will also look for second seats in constituencies like South Antrim, North Down, Strangford and Lagan Valley, mainly due to the declining DUP but as before the strength of Alliance complicates what otherwise could have been a straightforward contest within unionism, and limits UUP opportunities. Perhaps most interestingly is North and South Belfast, since UUP support collapsed here in 2019 especially at council level, but it is here where the UUP candidates provide the most significant contrast with the DUP incumbents, since Julie-Anne Corr-Johnson and Stephen McCarthy are much more socially liberal and economically left-leaning then their party colleagues. While both have a chance, they are both starting on a very low base and these constituencies are also targets for Alliance and possibly the Greens who would traditionally be more likely to be favoured by centre to left wing voters.
After many difficult years since the early 2000s, the UUP appears to have cause for optimism, with Doug Beattie as their new leader, Robin Swann as Health Minister and a number of impressive new candidates. It might therefore come as a disappointment that this is not translating into this new poll. It should be said that although these newer representative are generally more moderate and socially progressive, there has not yet been any indication that the party as a whole has moved in that direction. Their current Assembly team is generally socially conservative and centre-right on economics, and most of their current MLAs are expected to seek re-election in May. The UUP’s status as a ‘broad church’ is indicated by the contrast between the left-leaning progressivism of Corr-Johnston and McCarthy in Belfast and the conservative ticket of current MLA Rosemary Barton and former leader and MP Tom Elliott in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. If the UUP was able to win over both liberal and conservative unionist voters, either those who previously haven’t voted or who have voted DUP until now, they could be in a position to gain seats from the DUP. But as previously mentioned the success of Alliance will limit the UUP’s potential among more liberal voters who appear to be remaining with Alliance despite Beattie’s more progressive leanings compared to previous UUP leaders.
The UUP candidates announced so far includes a number of sitting councillors, but also quite a lot of first time candidates who have not been previously involved in politics. They will hope those newer candidates can win over newer voters who have not considered UUP before, but on the other hand they have no record of electoral success unlike the sitting councillors. It is also notable that some of the UUP’s new candidates have joined the party since Beattie became leader having been elected for other parties initially, e.g. Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston was a former PUP councillor from 2014 to 2019, Ryan McCready was elected for the DUP in 2019 before leaving the party earlier this year, and Ian Marshall is a former independent member of the Seanad whose first election was supported by several parties including Sinn Féin and Fine Gael. It will be interesting to see whether Corr-Johnston can bring over enough voters who supported her when she was a PUP candidate, and if McCready can do the same with those voters who supported him as a DUP candidate. Marshall has probably the highest profile of any new UUP candidate, but this is also his first election in Northern Ireland, which makes his campaign in West Tyrone more unpredictable. Overall this poll indicates that UUP support remains about in line with 2017, which means they would be quite unlikely to gain many seats but equally have few seats at risk.
SDLP
Confirmed candidates:
- Charlotte Carson (Belfast East)
- Nichola Mallon (Belfast North)
- Matthew O’Toole and Elsie Trainor (Belfast South)
- Paul Doherty (Belfast West)
- Cara Hunter (East Derry)
- Adam Gannon (Fermanagh and South Tyrone)
- Mark H Durkan, Sinead McLaughlin and Brian Tierney (Foyle)
- Pat Catney (Lagan Valley)
- Patsy McGlone (Mid Ulster)
- Eugene Reid (North Antrim)
- Déirdre Vaughan (North Down)
- Conor Houston (Strangford)
- Dolores Kelly (Upper Bann)
- Daniel McCrossan (West Tyrone)
MLAs not seeking re-election:
- Sinéad Bradley (South Down)
The SDLP are slightly down in this poll compared to previous polls as well as the last Assembly election. 11.4% would be the worst Assembly result in the party’s history, slightly down from 2016 (12.0%) and 2017 (11.9%). This could therefore be the first Assembly election in which the SDLP finishes fifth in first preference votes as well as seats, although it is worth remembering that in 2017 the SDLP was fourth in votes and third in seats, being more transfer friendly than the UUP, which could possibly happen again in 2022.
The SDLP did very well to win twelve seats in 2017, the same number as in 2016 despite the overall reduction in seats. Their two losses in West Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone were balanced by gains in Upper Bann and Lagan Valley. They were helped by a particularly high transfer rate from the UUP, reflecting Mike Nesbitt’s personal decision to transfer to the SDLP second which 30% of UUP voters did in Lagan Valley and Strangford. This also means several SDLP seats were very narrowly won or lost, and makes this election very unpredictable for them. For example, the SDLP will look to regain seats in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (lost by just 62 votes in 2017), West Belfast, as well as a seat in Strangford for the first time ever, having been the runners-up in every Assembly election since 1998. They will also want to regain a second seat in South Belfast and a third in Foyle following their Westminster victories there in 2019, but that will be more difficult without the tactical voting or personal votes that are more relevant to first past the post elections. On the other hand, the SDLP has several seats at risk, including in South Down, Upper Bann and Lagan Valley, which will depend on transfers especially from unionists, unlike in 2017 when these seats were against Sinn Féin and the DUP, it is more likely that these seats could be between the SDLP and Alliance in 2022.
The last Assembly election indicated that the SDLP are increasingly transfer friendly, especially to moderate unionists who recognised that in certain constituencies the final seat was between the SDLP and Sinn Féin. This happened in East Derry and Upper Bann, while in Lagan Valley UUP transfers helped the SDLP gain the final seat from the DUP. The problem for the SDLP is if they are competing with Alliance for some of these seats instead, unionist transfers to the SDLP become less certain as Alliance might be the preferable choice. However, in other constituencies where the SDLP is looking to regain seats previously lost to Sinn Féin, they are more likely to benefit from unionist and Alliance transfers. In fact, a declining Sinn Féin vote could help minimise SDLP losses, e.g. in South Down based on the 2017 election and the subsequent surge in Alliance support, it is quite likely that Alliance could take the second SDLP seat, but Sinn Féin had a huge vote there and if they drop below two quotas they might struggle to pick up transfers, while the SDLP will do better in the later stages on any Alliance or unionist surpluses. It could be very close but it’s not impossible SDLP could hold their two seats while Sinn Féin instead loses one to Alliance. But overall transfers will be crucial for the SDLP in a number of constituencies.
The SDLP have announced the majority of their candidates, with most MLAs seeking re-election and a number of new candidates alongside sitting councillors. They have selected candidates quite early in constituencies where the chances of a seat are extremely unlikely, such as in East Belfast and North Down, but this might be looking further forward to the 2023 local elections which will not be too long after the Assembly election. Running three candidates in Foyle is notable as the SDLP looks to gain from a vulnerable Sinn Féin or SDLP. Their candidate selection in South Down will be crucial, due to the challenge from Alliance mentioned earlier, and also because Sinéad Bradley is not running again, who did very well in 2016 and 2017. Similarly, will the SDLP decide to run any more candidates compared to before in other constituencies? This will be a difficult election to call for the SDLP, depending on transfers and the order of eliminations the gap between gaining a few seats or losing a few could be very narrow.
TUV
Confirmed candidates:
- John Ross (Belfast East)
- Ron McDowell (Belfast North)
- Jordan Armstrong (East Londonderry)
- Elizabeth Neely (Foyle)
- Jim Allister and Matthew Armstrong (North Antrim)
- Darrin Foster (Upper Bann)
MLAs not seeking re-election: None
This poll has TUV support just over double over their support in the last Assembly election, significantly ahead of their vote in 2011 (2.5%), 2016 (3.4%) and 2017 (2.6%). This would make 2022 their best Assembly election to date with 5.6%, it would also be ahead of all of their previous local and Westminster results, but still far behind their European election results in 2009 (13.7%), 2014 (12.1%) and 2019 (10.8%). Also, TUV support in this poll is far lower than their recent polls, for example the last LucidTalk poll had the TUV slightly ahead of the DUP.
The TUV would have several opportunities for gains on the basis of this poll, for example in East Antrim, South Antrim, Strangford and Lagan Valley, but they might not come close enough on first preference votes to remain competitive into the later stages. North Antrim presents an opportunity for a second seat since the TUV will almost certainly have at least one quota there, the risk is that most of those voters vote for Jim Allister and therefore the vote is not balanced enough for two TUV MLAs even if the votes are there. This has happened before to unionist parties with only one significant figure, who had a massive personal vote but could not bring another colleague over the line with them, such as UPUP leader Jim Kilfedder in 1982 and UKUP leader Robert McCartney in 1998. But for the other candidates outside of North Antrim, the risk is that they do not do as well without Allister’s personal vote, and also with the DUP emphasising the ‘vote us or get a Sinn Féin First Minister’ message which could limit TUV opportunities. While several gains are possible for the TUV, it’s also possible that they could be very unlikely on transfers and that the DUP can keep their candidates ahead, which could lead to Jim Allister returning once again as the only TUV MLA.
Green Party
Confirmed candidates: None
MLAs not seeking re-election: None
This is a very encouraging poll for the Greens which has their support up from the last Assembly election and also from the previous LucidTalk polls. In particular, it is up from their Assembly results in 2007 (1.7%), 2011 (0.9%), 2016 (2.7%) and 2017 (2.3%). This gives the Greens a good chance of holding their seats in South Belfast and North Down, and possibly a chance of one or two more, perhaps in East Belfast or another greater Belfast constituency.
The increase in support for the Greens is notable as it is happening alongside the Alliance surge, which highlights one of the most interesting dynamics of the 2019 local election, that both Alliance and the Greens were able to grow despite their similar voting bases. For example, Alliance gained second seats in Holywood and Clandeboye and Bangor West, and a third seat in Ormiston; in all three the Greens had narrowly won a seat in 2014 and were expected to be under threat from Alliance, but instead the Green candidates significantly improved their vote and instead the DUP and UUP lost seats. This does suggest that the Greens might not be limited by Alliance’s success in polls such as this. Also as with Alliance, the Greens are normally very transfer friendly so provided they have a reasonable amount of first preference votes in a certain constituency that would definitely give them a chance. In some ways the Greens’ success parallels that of the Women’s Coalition, who in 1998 won two Assembly seats in South Belfast and North Down with a low first preference vote, only 1.6% across Northern Ireland. With the Greens starting from a stronger base they are in a good position to defend what they have and possibly gain a seat too.
Other Parties
People Before Profit was the only party which currently has an MLA not included in this poll. They received 1.8% of the vote in 2017, and will hope to improve on that. Their one seat in West Belfast should be safe, and they narrowly lost a second in Foyle last time, this is their best chance of a gain but there is a risk that some of that vote was a personal one for Eamonn McCann who has been involved in Derry politics for over fifty years.
It is unlikely that any other party has much chance of winning an Assembly seat, although the PUP, Aontú, NI Conservatives and UKIP will probably run a number of candidates anyway. Of the independent MLAs, Claire Sugden will definitely have a good chance of re-election in East Londonderry considering she was elected there in 2016 and 2017, though it will be interesting to see if the Alliance vote increase or any change in UUP support there could complicate Sugden’s path to re-election. Alex Easton is probably the only other independent with a good chance of being elected, he was DUP until earlier this year and topped the poll in the last four Assembly elections in North Down as a DUP candidate. With the DUP vote in decline, it is possible he could hold his seat at their expense, although that depends on how much of his vote is personal to him, and there is also a chance that seat goes to Alliance instead. Another independent who is not running again is Trevor Lunn in Lagan Valley, he was Alliance until last year and Alliance will comfortably regain his seat, with a chance of a second. The only other independent MLA is Jim Wells, he is technically a DUP member but sits as an independent after losing the party whip in 2018. He has given no indication of his plans in May, whether to run for the DUP, as an independent or retire, and like with Easton it is hard to tell how much of his vote is personal to him.
On the basis of this poll, there are several possibilities in each constituency. Each have a few safe seats and one or two at risk:
Belfast East:
- Safe: Alliance (2), DUP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: UUP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: DUP (2)
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: TUV (1), Green (1), Alliance (3)
Belfast North:
- Safe: DUP (1), Sinn Féin (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: SDLP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: DUP (2), Sinn Féin (2)
- Likely gains: Alliance (1)
- Potential gains: UUP (1)
Belfast South:
- Safe: SDLP (1), Alliance (1): DUP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: Sinn Féin (1), Green (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: None
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: Alliance (2), SDLP (2), UUP (1)
Belfast West:
- Safe: Sinn Féin (3), People Before Profit (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: None
- Definitely vulnerable: Sinn Féin (4)
- Likely gains: None
East Antrim:
- Safe: DUP (1), UUP (1), Alliance (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (2)
- Definitely vulnerable: UUP (2)
- Likely gains: Alliance (2)
- Potential gains: TUV (1)
East Londonderry:
- Safe: DUP (1), Sinn Féin (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: SDLP (1), DUP (2), Claire Sugden
- Definitely vulnerable: None
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: Alliance (1), TUV (1)
Fermanagh and South Tyrone:
- Safe: Sinn Féin (2), DUP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: UUP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: Sinn Féin (3)
- Likely gains: SDLP (1)
- Potential gains: Alliance (1)
Foyle:
- Safe: SDLP (2), Sinn Féin (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: None
- Definitely vulnerable: Sinn Féin (2), DUP (1)
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: SDLP (3), Alliance (1), People Before Profit (1)
Lagan Valley:
- Safe: DUP (1), UUP (1), Alliance (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (2)
- Definitely vulnerable: SDLP (1)
- Likely gains: Alliance (2)
- Potential gains: TUV (1)
Mid Ulster:
- Safe: Sinn Féin (2)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (1), SDLP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: Sinn Féin (3)
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: Alliance (1), UUP (1)
Newry and Armagh:
- Safe: Sinn Féin (2), SDLP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: Sinn Féin (3)
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: Alliance (1), UUP (1)
North Antrim:
- Safe: DUP (1), UUP (1), TUV (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: None
- Likely gains: Alliance (1)
- Potential gains: TUV (2)
North Down:
- Safe: DUP (1), UUP (1), Alliance (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: Green (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: DUP (2)
- Likely gains: Alliance (2)
- Potential gains: Alex Easton, TUV (1)
South Antrim:
- Safe: DUP (1), UUP (1), Alliance (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: None
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: SDLP (1), TUV (1), UUP (2)
South Down:
- Safe: Sinn Féin (1), SDLP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: Sinn Féin (2), DUP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: SDLP (2)
- Likely gains: Alliance (1)
- Potential gains: UUP (1), Jim Wells?
Strangford:
- Safe: DUP (1), UUP (1), Alliance (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: DUP (2)
- Definitely vulnerable: DUP (3)
- Likely gains: Alliance (2)
- Potential gains: SDLP (1), TUV (1)
Upper Bann:
- Safe: DUP (1), Sinn Féin (1), UUP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: None
- Definitely vulnerable: DUP (2), SDLP (1)
- Likely gains: Alliance (1)
- Potential gains: TUV (1)
West Tyrone:
- Safe: Sinn Féin (2), DUP (1)
- Potentially vulnerable: SDLP (1)
- Definitely vulnerable: Sinn Féin (3)
- Likely gains: None
- Potential gains: Alliance (1), UUP (1)
Since no party will probably gain all of their targets and lose all of their vulnerable seats, a likely margin of potential seat numbers based on this poll would be:
Sinn Féin: 18-24
DUP: 16-22
Alliance: 15-20
UUP: 8-14
SDLP: 8-14
TUV: 1-5
Green: 2-3
People Before Profit: 1-2
Independent: 0-2
Jack Armstrong 